America’s Hollowing out of Its “One China” Policy Has Made Taiwan Less ...

奥鹏网院作业

America’s Hollowing out of Its “One China” Policy Has Made Taiwan Less Secure
By Zhang Wenzong and Zhang Lei

While maintaining the relationship between China and the United States, the “One China” policy practiced by the US has been a major factor that obstructs the complete unification of China. Under such a policy,the US recognizes the People’s Republic of China, while holding “no position” on Taiwan’s sovereignty. However, the US has tried to maintain a situation of “no unification, no independence and no application of military forces” across the Taiwan Strait through political, economic, military and diplomatic means to prevent the unification of China at minimal cost.In the process of instigating a “new cold war” against China, the Trump administration once tried to abandon this policy, as seen in its efforts to raise the level of exchanges between senior officials of the US and Taiwan,change the mode of arms sales to Taiwan, and express support for Taiwan’s return to the United Nations. Before Trump left office, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo argued “Taiwan has never been a part of China”, and declared “to lift all restrictions on contact between US and Taiwan officials”in an attempt to create a major crisis in China-US relations on the issue of Taiwan, and set a hard-line policy tone of anti-China and pro-Taiwan for the incoming US administration. This hollowing out of its “One China” policy served the US strategy of containing China, which enjoyed the support of the US Congress and the cooperation of the DPP authority in Taiwan.

In the face of the risky behaviors of two forces, the US is very keen on “using Taiwan to contain China” and Taiwan is keen on “seeking independence by relying on the US”. Mainland China, recognized the danger of Taiwan being separated from the motherland, has significantly increased diplomatic containment and military deterrence against the “independent forces” in Taiwan. In the military struggle against Taiwan “independent forces”, the PLA has enhanced its combat readiness and ability to win through large-scale and high-intensity actual combat exercises, increased combat readiness patrols in the Taiwan Strait, and sent jet fighters across the so-call “middle line” of the Taiwan Strait and regularly to the southwest airspace of Taiwan’s so-called “Air Defense Identification Zone” to safeguard China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity with concrete actions.To counteract American military pressure, the PLA has been tracing the US military aircraft and ships passing through the Taiwan Strait in support of Taiwan authorities. Chinese government has also declared sanctions on US arms manufacturers such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon that produce weapons for Taiwan, in an effort to counter increasing US arms sales to Taiwan. The interaction among the US, mainland China and Taiwan has made Taiwan less secure. Some scholars in Taiwan even worry that the two sides have advanced into a “quasi-state of war”.

The Democratic candidate Joe Biden defeated Trump in the 2020 US presidential election, and became the 46th president of the United States. Although the Biden administration is very much different from its predecessor in terms of partisan interests, domestic governance and foreign policy philosophy, it has, on the whole, continued the strategy of all-out competition with China, and its Taiwan policy is different from that pursued by its predecessor, but it also has continuity.

Biden has reaffirmed the US’ “One China” policy, mainly because of his reluctance to break out into conflict and full-scale confrontation with China at this stage. As the Taiwan issue is the political foundation of China-US relations, China has every right to demand the Biden administration to abide by the “One China” principle in its mending of the bilateral relations that have been seriously undermined by the Trump administration. President Xi Jinping of China pointed out during a phone call with Biden in February 2021 that the US side should respect the core interests of China and act prudently as issues relating to Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang among others are China’s internal affairs that concern China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of CPC Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, also emphasized, the Taiwan issue involves China’s core interests and national dignity, and affects the national feelings of 1.4 billion Chinese people. As a result, it cannot be interfered into, otherwise it will inflict a great damage to China-US relations and American interests in the end. Since Biden himself and his diplomatic and security team are all deft in foreign affairs, they are well aware of the history of the Taiwan issue as well as its importance and sensitivity. As the Biden administration is currently prioritized on fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic, reviving economy, bringing about domestic unity and responding to climate change at home, and rallying its allies and partners to engage in major power competition with China and Russia abroad, it is not in line with its interest to show down with China over Taiwan or to continue the too-provocative policies of its predecessor. Ned Price, spokesperson for the US State Department, confirmed the “One China” policy of the United States has not changed, resulting not only from China’s pressure on the US, but also from Biden’s priority on domestic affairs and his focus on long-term competition with China rather than a short-term showdown.

Under domestic pressure and to compete with China, the Biden administration will continue to develop relations with Taiwan. The Interim National Security Strategic Guidance issued by White House in March 2021 pointed out, China is the “only competitor capable of integrating economic, diplomatic, military, and scientific and technological strength to pose a continuing challenge to a stable and open international system”;the US will compete with China by investing at home, enhancing its power and strengthening its allies and partners; and “we will support Taiwan, a leading democracy and a critical economic and security partner, in line with longstanding American commitments”. To show the importance he attached to Taiwan, Joe Biden invited Bi-Khim Hsiao, “Taiwan Representative to the US”, to his inauguration ceremony, which was the first time since the US severed official ties with Taiwan in 1979 that an “official representative” of Taiwan regime attended relevant activities at invitation. The incumbent US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also expressed his support for Taiwan’s accession to the World Health Organization, promised to invite Taiwan to a“global democracy summit” sponsored by the US, and once called Taiwan a “country”. Congressional legislations, such as the Taiwan Relations Act,the Taiwan Travel Act, the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, and the Taipei Act, as well as the legacies of the Trump administration’s Taiwan policy will also promote Biden to remain pro-Taiwan. If Biden is slow “to stand up for Taiwan” under pressure from mainland China, it will give members of Congress an excuse to accuse him of being soft on China, as they all aimed at “doing whatever possible to improve US-Taiwan relationship by dealing with it as state-to-state relations without recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state”. So to speak, there is more agreement than disagreement between the two parties as well as between the government and Congress in dealing with China and improving relations with Taiwan. Moreover, the US strategic community, such as CSIS and the Brookings Institution, also supports elevation of US-Taiwan relations, as its relevant reports claimed,the Taiwan Relations Act, American interpretation of the three China-US joint communiqués and the “Six Assurances” should serve as the core framework for US policy toward Taiwan; the US should promote exchanges of senior officials at cabinet and sub-cabinet levels between the US and Taiwan; strengthen the “overall defense” of the US and Taiwan to make it less likely that China will “reunify” Taiwan by force, and expand USTaiwan defense dialog to resolve China’s “non-force coercion” on Taiwan;and assist Taiwan to expand its “international space” and strengthen the publicity of US-Taiwan relations.

Unless there is a showdown between China and the US, the Biden administration is not likely to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan,nor will it be likely to send an organized US army to Taiwan and support Taiwan’s accession to international organizations composed of sovereign states. However, the US will continue to maintain and enhance high-level contacts with Taiwan according to the situation of the game with China and support Taiwan’s efforts to stabilize the number of its “diplomatic allies” and expand its “international space”, all of which constitute material damages to the One China principle. Relevant US policies and actions are bound to worsen China-US relations and cross-Strait relations. Particularly in terms of security, America’s move from “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity” is dangerous. Calls in the US for a clear defense commitment to Taiwan have increased as mainland China’s ability to deter “Taiwan independence” is growing significantly. Meanwhile, in the process of implementing the “Pacific Deterrence Initiative”, the US has stepped up its war preparations under the pretext of deterring China’s “reunification by force”, and actively coordinated with its allies to contain and deter China together. After the first “2+2” meeting between US and Japanese foreign and defense ministers under the Biden administration, the US and Japan claimed in an joint statement “the ministers of both countries emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”.The Biden administration is also promoting the “Quad Plus” mechanism,to show a strategic posture of collective response in the event of something happening to Taiwan. With or without a defense pact between the US and Taiwan, once the US makes a statement of assisting Taiwan in its defense,it will be equivalent to an explicit guarantee of Taiwan’s security, which will not only seriously violate the three China-US joint communiqués and the One China principle, but also hollow out the Taiwan Relations Act and the US’ “One China” policy. It is bound to seriously undermine the political foundation of China-US relations, and will inevitably encounter strong opposition and counterattack from mainland China. In so doing, the US can neither deter and appease mainland China nor control the “Taiwan independence” forces that have got a “blank check” from the United States.In that case, the situation across the Taiwan Strait is bound to develop in an extremely dangerous direction, thus making Taiwan, a small island sandwiched between China and the US, even less secure.

(Zhang Wenzong is Assistant Director of the Institute of American Studies, CICIR; Zhang Lei is Assistant Research Professor of the Institute of American Studies, CICIR. This article was received on March 18, 2021.)